The bond market has found a new life, deciding that Bernanke and company are serious about the possibility of ending the tightening cycle sooner rather than later. The Dollar has of course done a complete about face in the past 36 hours, getting hammered again and again. Most commodities are higher if for no other reason than a weaker dollar buys less on the global markets. The precious metals in particular have had huge moves yesterday and today.

How much of these rallies are short covering vs. a new perspective on valuations? I don't know, but I expect to find out after the 4th of July holiday. If commodities can stay up at these levels through the end of next week, we just might have another commodity bull on our hands...

Our TNR model was looking for a reversion day today, but other than some morning chop we didn't get much action. We ended up losing $889 on two trades (one ES, one NQ). The model is calling for a Trending day on Monday in both ES and NQ.

As you can see from the charts on the right, our TNR model has finally found itself in sync with the market this month. We end the month at over $10K in equity with TNR, and better than $90K in the System B model - that represents a 50% return on invested capital, with half the year still to go!

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$456	47		@KC.P	-1	-$31	23
@FV.P	-4	$7,675	104		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$8,050	56
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$3,670	51		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	-$638	11		@HG.P	2	$71,775	271
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$1,802	29
@S.P	-3	-$3,763	4		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$88,997
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$92,812

Good luck, and have a fantastic 4th of July weekend!

The markets sure seemed to like the Fed announcement today! Equities had a monster rally, Bonds were up, Crude was up, everything is coming up roses! The dollar of course got hit pretty hard on lower rate expectations - everything seems to be focused on interest rate differentials in that market right now (which is not always the case).

Our grain positions haven't been looking very good over the past few days - we need some good weather in the nation's breadbasket to help us with these crops!

Finally, Copper had it's strongest day in several months. Technical covering, merger talk from earlier in the week, and a hope that the Fed may be done soon all helped to put a nice bid to the market.

Our TNR model did OK today - we were long ES going into the Fed announcement, and were able to ride the wave all the way to our 4:00 exit, for a gain of $1747 on two contracts. Unfortunately, we were stopped out of our NQ long around 1:00, and missed that rally. Even so, net gains on the day were $1185. Tomorrow we are looking for a reversion day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,363	46		@KC.P	-1	$813	22
@FV.P	-4	$8,613	103		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$8,800	55
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$5,440	50		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$925	10		@HG.P	2	$70,075	270
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$2,572	28
@S.P	-3	-$2,038	3		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$96,562
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$100,377

Good luck, and have a great evening!

We had kind of an interesting day today - many of our positions started out looking pretty grim - Copper down, CAD down, Lumber up, Bonds up... but then things turned around and we finished the day with some nice gains.

Our TNR model was in neutral today, but we are looking for a trending day in both contracts tomorrow. It could get interesting with a bit more uncertainty around the Fed meeting (25 or 50 basis points).

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$2,019	45		@KC.P	-1	$719	21
@FV.P	-4	$9,675	102		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$7,990	54
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$2,530	49		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$1,550	9		@HG.P	2	$63,375	269
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$2,451	27
@S.P	-3	-$1,550	2		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$88,759
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$92,574

Good luck, and have a great evening!

What a difference a day makes! Everything that seemed to be going right yesterday moved the exact opposite direction today. Grains had a strong showing thanks to some revised weather reports showing dry growing conditions to persist in the intermediate term. Bonds were up on weaker than expected housing data, and Copper fell along with the rest of the metals. The metals had a very poor showing, opening up and then collapsing after Gold failed to breach the all important $600/oz level.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in both ES and NQ, and that is what we saw. Our NQ model was whipsawed a bit at the end of the day, but we managed to make a total of $877 on one trade in ES and 3 in NQ. Tomorrow we are calling for a Neutral day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,581	44		@KC.P	-1	$1,619	20
@FV.P	-4	$9,113	101		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$9,025	53
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$2,650	48		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$1,738	8		@HG.P	2	$58,325	268
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$1,472	26
@S.P	-3	-$1,475	1		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$84,047
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$87,862

Good luck, and have a wonderful evening!

Corn and Soybeans got hit pretty hard today on the back of favorable weather over the weekend, and good forecasts going forward. Energy was up, and Cotton and Corn were down. Cotton has certainly started looking like it wants to trend down again, after almost washing us out of our trade about 10 days ago.

The weakness in Soybeans has prompted us to (again) sell short 3 contracts at today's close. That trade will be reflected in tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model was looking for a trending day in both contracts. We wound up dropping -$234 on two trades. Tomorrow we are again calling for a Trending day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,956	43		@KC.P	-1	$1,900	19
@FV.P	-4	$9,488	100		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$9,100	52
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$2,320	47		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$2,300	7		@HG.P	2	$65,675	267
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$1,142	25
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$93,881
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$97,696

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Today was a nice finish to the week, with most of our positions moving in our favor. The two standouts were Copper to the upside (we are long) and Cotton to the downside (we are short). The past two days have been exceptionally difficult for Cotton, undoing weeks of gains, and closing at its lowest point in over a year. Bonds continue to trend down, as does Coffee and Corn. Next week ends the second quarter - let's wait and see how things pan out.


Our TNR model called for a neutral day in both contracts, so no positions were taken. Monday we are looking for a Trending day in both ES and NQ. Our equity curve for our TNR model is finally starting to look like we like to see: sloping up and to the left.



Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,925	42		@KC.P	-1	$1,656	18
@FV.P	-4	$9,425	99		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$8,920	51
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$2,230	46		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$988	6		@HG.P	2	$61,575	266
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$1,439	24
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$88,158
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$91,973

Good luck, and have a fantastic weekend!

A second day of dollar strength is having a negative effect on some commodity prices. The metals closed down, as did the grains and Sugar and Cotton. Bond prices were also off, on fears of further Fed tightening. Those fears also hurt equity prices today, but the major indexes closed well above their lowest levels of the day.

Our TNR model was in neutral for both contracts today, and tomorrow we are again calling for neutral in both ES and NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,519	41		@KC.P	-1	$1,469	17
@FV.P	-4	$9,050	98		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$6,820	50
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$3,460	45		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$425	5		@HG.P	2	$56,450	265
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$944	23
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$80,137
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$83,952

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Another decent day for our model with Bonds, Coffee and Cotton helping us out. The best trending markets right now seem to be the five and ten year note contracts. Cotton also seems to have started to head back down again, after getting perilously close to our stops about a week ago.

Our TNR model had a great day again, calling for a trending day in both contracts, and getting it. We made a total of $1247 on 3 trades (one in ES and 2 in NQ). Thursday we are calling for a Neutral day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$925	40		@KC.P	-1	$1,619	16
@FV.P	-4	$8,300	97		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$4,090	49
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$5,650	44		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	-$138	4		@HG.P	2	$59,525	264
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$1,252	22
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$81,223
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$85,038

Good luck and have a great evening!

Again, not a lot of action today... are the summer doldrums here already? Copper had a bit of a spike on news of a possible strike in the worlds largest copper mine, and bonds sold off on a stronger than expected housing number, but even so, not much going on.

Our TNR model called for a trending day in NQ, and we wound up losing $182 on one trade. Tomorrow we are looking for a Trending day in ES and NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$925	39		@KC.P	-1	$1,338	15
@FV.P	-4	$8,300	96		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$3,760	48
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$3,610	43		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$613	3		@HG.P	2	$58,575	263
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$1,967	21
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$79,087
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$82,902

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Corn, Coffee, Lumber, Cotton and Bonds all were down today, and we are short all those markets... Unfortunately, so was Copper, and we happen to still be long. However, not too much damage was done, and we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in ES and a reversion day in NQ, and we managed to eke out small gains in each. Net total gains on the day were $297. Things were looking much better until the market did that shimmy/shake at the end of the day and reversed us out of our short position in ES, going long at the wrong time.

Tomorrow we are calling for a neutral day in ES and a Trending day in NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$738	38		@KC.P	-1	$1,413	14
@FV.P	-4	$8,050	95		@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	-3	$4,195	47
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$3,340	42		@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$613	2		@HG.P	2	$57,625	262
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	-1	$2,022	20
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$77,995
		Total Closed Trades			$3,815
		Total			$81,810

Good luck, and have a great evening!