Everyone was waiting for the USDA crop report today, and the Corn buyers liked what they saw. Total plantings are projected to be the lowest since 2001, and Corn soared on the news to 7 month highs. Since we were short 6 contracts, that wasn't news we wanted to hear! We covered all 6 contracts at the close, for a decent sized loss of $5,725.

Other than that, March ended on a pretty strong note. We reversed all the drawdown we experienced in February, and then some. We are closing the first quarter with an open and closed equity position of +$48,939 in System B, and -$2,610 in our TNR model, for a Net total of +$46,329. Based on our $200K notional account size, that represents a gain of 23% YTD. Let's hope that continues for the rest of the year!




System B made $879 on 4 trades in ES today, and Monday we are calling for a Trending day.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$3,800	41		@SB.P	3	$10,819	129
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$575	39		@GC.P	3	$17,400	140
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$12,745	91
@C.P	-6	-$5,525	9		@HG.P	2	$21,700	208
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$3,825	91
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	-$830	12
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$63,359
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$48,939

Good luck, and enjoy your weekend!

The metals continue to defy gravity. What a day, with all three contracts (Gold, Silver, and Copper) setting significant new highs. It's hard to believe that they can continue to act like this, but I was saying that back in January as well.

The other big news on the day was the selloff in bonds. We breached some significant technical support levels today, and caught a downdraft when the stops kicked in.

Our TNR model lost another $1090 today, and really seems to be out of synch with the moves we are seeing in the equity index markets. We are calling for a reversion day in ES again tomorrow.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$3,988	40		@SB.P	3	$12,062	128
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$938	38		@GC.P	3	$18,930	139
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$13,445	90
@C.P	-6	-$3,050	8		@HG.P	2	$22,775	207
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$4,250	90
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	-$605	12
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$70,857
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$56,437

Good luck and have a great evening!

Bonds down, equities up... and all is right with the world. Apparently many folks decided to rethink the knee-jerk reaction to yesterday's Fed action, and we had a nice reaction rally in the equity markets - particularly in the Nasdaq.

Metals had another big day, with all three of the markets we trade making new highs. Really, the only fly in the ointment today was Corn, which continues to rally and hasn't touched our entry point since we put on the trade.

Another disappointing day for our TNR model, losing $1090 on two money management stops being hit. We will stick with the program, however, and tomorrow we are calling for a reversion day again in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$3,300	39		@SB.P	3	$11,827	127
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$513	37		@GC.P	3	$14,970	138
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$10,720	89
@C.P	-6	-$2,000	7		@HG.P	2	$20,475	206
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$4,500	89
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	$355	10
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$63,635
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$49,215

Good luck and have a great evening

Today it was the interest rate sensitive sectors with the big moves. Bonds sold off in a fairly big way (as did equities) after the Fed announcement, disappointing those who thought a pause was in the works. The dollar rallied as well, which helped our short Yen position. Sugar is once again moving higher, due to both higher energy costs, and some storm related damage to the cane fields in Australia.

Our System B model has had quite a surge over the past 2 weeks or so, and hopefully this will continue to at least the end of the quarter. Our open trade P/L is up a staggering 22+% YTD, which puts it up over 90% on an annualized basis... (of course we would never expect to extrapolate our current run over the remainder of the year).

I only wish we were having such luck with our daytrading model. We were calling for a trending day in ES and NQ today, and although we saw a big move after the Fed meeting, we were positioned long in both contracts, and were stopped out for a net loss of $1090 on the day. We are calling for a Reversion day in both contracts tomorrow.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$3,050	38		@SB.P	3	$11,726	126
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$425	36		@GC.P	3	$13,050	137
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$9,495	88
@C.P	-6	-$1,400	6		@HG.P	2	$19,975	205
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$3,750	88
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	$1,120	10
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$60,341
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$45,921

Good luck, and have a great evening!

It was all Metals today, with Gold, Silver and Copper zooming higher. The overall consensus seems to be that the global economy is chugging on all cylinders right now, and the metals are the happy recepients of money looking to capitalize on that growth.

The Equity indexes for the most part were just marking time ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow, with everyone waiting to see if the wording of the "Bernanke Fed" announcement at 2:15 differs greatly from his predecessor's communique.

Our TNR model is missing our a bit in this low volatility environment. We called for a Trending day in both contracts again today (that is the second day in a row) and lost a net total of $618 on three trades. Tomorrow we are calling for a trending day again. I'm not sure of when we last saw a Trending day forecast 3 days in a row, but it has been over 8 months for sure.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$1,613	37		@SB.P	3	$9,408	125
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$1,588	35		@GC.P	3	$12,390	136
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$9,620	87
@C.P	-6	-$1,250	5		@HG.P	2	$20,050	204
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$4,600	87
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	$1,120	8
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$55,963
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$41,543

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Gold followed Silver's lead from yesterday, and staged a strong rally, closing up $15/oz. That is a nice end to the week, and hopefully will provide some momentum going forward. Silver also finished slightly up, along with Sugar and the Equity indexes. Bonds staged a significant rally on the back of a VERY weak new home sales number, and as a result, the dollar was off a bit against the Euro and Yen.

Our TNR model had a very bad time of it today, losing $1147 on three trades. We are calling for a trending day in both ES and NQ again on Monday.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$1,175	36		@SB.P	3	$8,232	124
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$850	34		@GC.P	3	$11,040	135
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$8,820	86
@C.P	-6	-$350	4		@HG.P	2	$18,275	203
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$4,800	86
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	$1,585	7
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$52,727
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$38,307

Good luck, and have an excellent weekend!

A pretty strong showing across the board today, with Silver and Copper standing out. Both set new contract highs on big moves. Corn at least moved in our direction, as did the Yen. Equities sold off a bit on the back of stronger energy prices, but the Treasuries sold off fairly substantially.

Our TNR model was neutral for both contracts today, but we are calling for a trending day in both contracts tomorrow.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$2,425	35		@SB.P	3	$7,291	123
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$475	33		@GC.P	3	$8,130	134
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$8,595	85
@C.P	-6	-$500	3		@HG.P	2	$18,450	202
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$4,675	85
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	$2,170	7
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$50,761
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$36,341

Good luck, and have a great evening!

A mixed bag again today, with Equity strength offset by weakness in the precious metals, and everything else virtually unchanged. Although we don't have any position right now, Cotton had a big down day today, and we may be getting short in the next week or so.

Our TNR model was calling for a reversion day today, and we got enough chop in NQ to make some money. We hit our money management stop on a short position in ES early on, but net gains from both contracts on the day was $148. Tomorrow is a neutral day for both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$1,738	34		@SB.P	3	$7,157	122
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$1,463	32		@GC.P	3	$8,400	133
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$7,620	84
@C.P	-6	-$1,475	2		@HG.P	2	$15,500	201
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$5,000	84
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	$2,170	5
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$44,647
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$30,227

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Today was definately a mixed bag in terms of results. We had decent moves in a number of contracts, some in our favor and some against. Silver had a break-out day, closing at a new high. Sugar finally broke out of the range it has been in over the past 2 weeks (to the upside), bonds sold off on the back of Bernanke's hawkish speech in New York last night, and in a related development, the dollar strengthed (which helped our short Yen position). That was the good news. On the flip side, Equities slid hard, Gold sold off, and our new short position in Corn took a pretty good hit.

Our TNR model also performed poorly today, with both contracts triggering our money management stops. Ironically, we were stopped out of a short position in ES on the morning rally, and a long position in NQ on the afternoon fade. Tomorrow we are calling for a reversion day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$1,738	33		@SB.P	3	$7,862	121
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$1,263	31		@GC.P	3	$8,850	132
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$7,970	83
@C.P	-6	-$1,775	1		@HG.P	2	$14,750	200
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$4,250	83
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	$1,120	4
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$43,502
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$29,082

Good luck and have a great evening!

A big sell-off in Crude wasn't able to pull up equities today, which could be something of a omen going forward. Bonds were up again today, and the dollar was stronger as well.

The rains in Texas seem to be doing what the grain market feared most, saving the parched winter wheat crop. We saw good sized selling in all three of the grain markets, and as a result we went short 6 contracts of May Corn at the close. That position will show up on tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in both ES and NQ, which never materialized. We lost -$688 on three trades - Two in NQ and one in ES. We are again calling for a Trending day in ES and NQ tomorrow.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$425	32		@SB.P	3	$6,518	120
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$2,100	30		@GC.P	3	$9,720	131
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$6,955	82
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$15,250	199
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$5,050	82
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	$1,690	3
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$43,508
		Total Closed Trades			-$14,420
		Total			$29,088

Good luck, and have a great evening!