The bonds clearly didn't like what they saw in the Fed minutes released today, and the dollar reacted accordingly. Equities managed to shrug off some of the uneasiness that was evident right after the Fed minutes came out. Finally, all the metals and Lumber were off on the day.

Our TNR model called for a reversion day in both contracts, and we made a net total of$285 on the day (on 5 trades total). Tomorrow we are calling for a Neutral day in both contracts (finally! - we haven't had a day off in TNR in quite a while).

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$331	25		@KC.P	0	-$275	1
@FV.P	-4	$6,863	82		@SB.P	3	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$4,435	34
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$34,080	181
@CD.P	3	$7,690	29		@SI.P	1	$16,785	132
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$81,200	249
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$1,054	7
@S.P	-3	$250	6		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	1	$720	35		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$153,133
		Total Closed Trades			-$26,915
		Total			$126,218

Good luck, and have a great evening!

A big fade in equities today, despite the fact that the man that made Goldman Sachs such a powerhouse is now taking over the U.S. Economy (or at least the Treasury department). The only real other news was copper actually declining in the face of rising Gold and Silver prices. That is a bit unusual these days, and could signify something a bit more ominous going forward.

The continued weakness in Coffee has finally piqued our interest, and we sold 1 contract of July Coffee short at the close. That position will appear in tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model had a nice day today, calling for a Trending day, going short, and riding both contracts (ES and NQ) down until our 4:00 PM exit time. We made a total net profit of $1357 on two trades. Tomorrow we are calling for a Reversion day in ES and NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$263	24		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,925	81		@SB.P	3	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$3,370	33
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$37,530	180
@CD.P	3	$8,530	28		@SI.P	1	$19,860	131
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$83,700	248
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$691	6
@S.P	-3	-$350	5		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	1	$2,765	34		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$161,759
		Total Closed Trades			-$26,915
		Total			$134,844

Good luck, and have a great evening!

It is Memorial Day, the markets are closed, and so are we. In the spirit of the day, however, I would like to take a moment to pay tribute to all of those who have given what, for most of us, is impossible to imagine.
Those who have paid the ultimate price so that we in America can continue to live with freedom and dignity deserve our honor every day, but today is the day we chose to make that honor manifest. God Bless them and those whom they loved, and God Bless our nation.

Not a bad finish for the week. Bonds, Heating Oil and Cotton let us down, but the Metals and Lumber more than made up the lost ground.

This week saw some very interesting price action, with what looks like consolidation moves in most markets. We now have a holiday weekend, which often is a demarcation point in trend/consolidation cycles. Next week should begin to give us some clues as to which markets will reassert their trends, and which trends are finished.


Our TNR model was calling for a reversion day in ES, but there was such little movement, we wound up with only 2 trades for a net gain of $168 on the day. Tuesday we are looking for a Trending day in both ES and NQ.

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$700	23		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,363	80		@SB.P	3	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$4,435	32
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$36,600	179
@CD.P	3	$6,220	27		@SI.P	1	$18,160	130
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$90,750	247
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$372	5
@S.P	-3	-$200	4		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	1	$900	33		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$161,900
		Total Closed Trades			-$26,915
		Total			$134,985

Good luck, and have a relaxing Memorial day weekend!

A nice showing across the board today for our open positions. Nothing went crazy, but we had a number of contributors... Metals were up, Cotton and Lumber were slightly down, the CAD (our best performer) had a strong day on the back of a rate hike. Bonds were off, and really the only fly in the ointment was Soybeans.

Our TNR model did OK as well, netting a total of $378 in both markets. The end of day rally set us back (we were short both contracts) but we'll take what we can get. Tomorrow we are calling for a Reversion day in ES and a Neutral day in NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$419	22		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,613	79		@SB.P	3	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$5,755	31
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$35,850	178
@CD.P	3	$6,580	26		@SI.P	1	$17,510	129
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$85,375	246
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	-$68	4
@S.P	-3	-$463	3		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	1	$1,476	32		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$157,209
		Total Closed Trades			-$26,915
		Total			$130,294

Good luck, and have a great day!

The equity indexes continue to make relatively large swings with higher than usual intraday volatility.

I'm beginning to think that this consolidation is just that, a consolidation prior to pushing to new highs. I don't think that I've been able to pick up a magazine or a newspaper without reading an article about "how to prepare for the sell-off in stocks" or "what to expect on the way back down" or something along those lines. If everyone is thinking the same thing, it's usually a good bet that the opposite will come true.

In other markets, we saw a renewed sell-off in the Metals, and bonds continue to mark time. The dollar showed some strength against both the Yen and the Euro, and the grains slid a bit on the back of a favorable grain report.

Our TNR model netted a grand total of $151 on 5 trades... not spectacular, but with these wide swings, our stops seem to be getting hit sooner than the market can turn around. Tomorrow we are again calling for a reversion day in both markets.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$950	21		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$4,988	78		@SB.P	3	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$5,920	30
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$32,610	177
@CD.P	3	$3,370	25		@SI.P	1	$17,085	128
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$81,950	245
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	-$57	3
@S.P	-3	-$200	2		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	1	-$792	31		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$143,923
		Total Closed Trades			-$26,915
		Total			$117,008

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Yesterday's reversals proved prophetic in Metals and Energy, with both sectors marking solid gains today. Copper continues to be the metals star, once again scratching its way back, and looking to make another run on $4.00.

Our TNR Model didn't do too well, losing a total of $431 on 6 trades. Intraday volitility is certainly picking up, and we are again calling for a reversion day tomorrow in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$544	20		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,550	77		@SB.P	3	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$4,675	29
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$43,500	176
@CD.P	3	$3,970	24		@SI.P	1	$20,360	127
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$94,275	244
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	-$662	2
@S.P	-3	-$838	1		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	1	$1,673	30		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$171,960
		Total Closed Trades			-$26,915
		Total			$145,045

Good luck and have a wonderful evening!

We had interesting intraday reversals in many markets today, which could be signaling at least a medium term change in direction. None of our positions moved all that much on a close to close basis, and our overall open trade equity barely even budged. The most noticable reversal was in the dollar, which opened stronger and proceded to tank for the rest of the day.

We are again selling the soybean market short, selling 3 July contracts at the market close today. That position will appear on tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model was calling for a Reversion day in both contracts. Our NQ positions were profitable for most of the day, but our ES position hit a money management stop on the second trade of the day. Nevertheless, overall we saw a net total gain of $736 on the day. Tomorrow we are again looking for a Reversion day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$919	19		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,050	76		@SB.P	3	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$7,090	28
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$38,670	175
@CD.P	3	$4,480	23		@SI.P	1	$16,660	126
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$73,075	243
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	-$343	1
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	1	-$1,111	29		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$142,652
		Total Closed Trades			-$26,915
		Total			$115,737

Good luck, and have a great evening!

No matter how you slice it, it was a tough week for virtually all our positions. The only position that moved in our favor was Cotton, and we were stopped out of positions in ES, YM, CL and SB. The metals took a material hit over the course of the week, and Copper, which had been somewhat immune to the price action in precious metals was down substantially today.

On the bright side, we are still up over 55% YTD, which is double our historical annual return with this model, and it's only the end of May.

We have a new position, selling short 1 contract of July Lumber on the close today. We are still very close to shorting Coffee as well.

Our TNR model was a bust again today, hitting our money management stop in NQ on the morning sell-off. As you can see from the chart, we have been experiencing a lot of sideways action in TNR this year... hopefully things will start to improve. For Monday, we are calling for a Reversion day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$638	18		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,363	75		@SB.P	3	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$6,805	27
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$38,640	174
@CD.P	3	$3,040	22		@SI.P	1	$16,310	125
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$73,450	242
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	1	-$1,636	28		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$141,334
		Total Closed Trades			-$26,915
		Total			$114,419

Good luck, and have a fantastic weekend.

We are seeing increased volatility in almost all the markets we trade. We are certainly experiencing an inflection point of some kind, and only time will tell if it is a hiccup, or a real change in market sentiment.

We exited two trades today at the market close, our long Dow Index position, and our long Sugar position. Both trades will be reflected in tomorrow's reports. We are also very close to a new position, shorting Lumber on any additional weakness in that market.

Our TNR model worked brilliantly until the big fade in the last hour of trading. However, even after getting hit with money management stops in both ES and NQ, we were able to book a total net profit of $658 on 4 ES trades and 2 NQ trades. Tomorrow we are calling for a Reversion day in NQ and a Neutral day in ES.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$513	17		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,300	74		@SB.P	3	$5,578	162
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$5,815	26
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$45,660	173
@CD.P	3	$2,920	21		@SI.P	1	$17,110	124
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$85,550	241
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	-$1,505	45
@HO.P	1	-$326	27		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$165,589
		Total Closed Trades			-$30,788
		Total			$134,801

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Are investors starting to detect a whiff of unexpected inflation... or more importantly, is Bernanke and the Fed smelling it. The fear of more tightening sent quite a few folks running for the exits in equities and bonds today, and provided a bid to the dollar. The dollar strength drove down prices in most of the other commodities, notably Energy and the metals. So far it has been an interesting week, and we still have two more days to go.

We exited our Crude position today at the close, and we are very close to our stop level in YM, which would exit us completely from our Equities positions.

Our TNR model called for a trending day in ES, but unfortunately we were whipsawed out first thing in the morning for a loss of $532. Tomorrow we are calling for a reversion day in ES and NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$488	16		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$6,488	73		@SB.P	3	$7,560	161
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$4,630	25
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$48,930	172
@CD.P	3	$5,080	20		@SI.P	1	$20,710	123
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$83,575	240
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$0	0
@CL.P	1	-$3,660	22		@YM	3	-$635	45
@HO.P	1	-$1,590	26		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$171,575
		Total Closed Trades			-$27,128
		Total			$144,447

Good luck and have a great evening!