With today's surge in the metals, we finished another week on a strong note. It seems that the continued dollar weakness is turning around the precious metals markets.


Despite Bernanke's congressional testimony, I don't see how the Fed will be able to stop raising interest rates for any prolonged period. Commodity inflation seems to be quite entrenched right now, with even the grains starting to show signs of stirring from the doldrums they have been in.


We exited our Soybean position on the close today, covering 2 contracts at the close. That position will be reflected in Monday's reports.


Our TNR model was calling for a reversion day in both contracts, and that is what we saw in NQ. Our ES position was stopped out on the morning rally. Net gains on the day were $1010 for NQ and a loss of -$532 in ES, for a Net total gain of $478.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$638	3		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$4,925	60		@SB.P	3	$9,240	148
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$3,265	12
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$37,740	159
@CD.P	3	$3,640	7		@SI.P	1	$22,060	110
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$66,775	227
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	-2	-$2,275	18		@ES	2	$5,100	110
@CL.P	1	-$470	9		@YM	3	$1,345	31
@HO.P	1	$2,261	13		@NQ	3	-$2,375	16
		Total Open Trades			$150,594
		Total Closed Trades			-$23,758
		Total			$126,836

Good luck, and have a fantastic weekend!

Equities and bonds saw a bit of a bid today after Bernanke's Congressional testimony indicated that the Fed may pause after one more rate hike. Needless to say, the dollar was hit pretty hard on that news. Most of the other commodities we track lost some ground as well, with Energy leading the way.

Our TNR model got caught on the wrong side of the Bernanke rally, and we hit our money management stops in both contracts for a net loss of -$1090 on the day. Tomorrow we are calling for a reversion day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$294	2		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,550	59		@SB.P	3	$8,232	147
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$4,720	11
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$32,280	158
@CD.P	3	$2,770	6		@SI.P	1	$16,860	109
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$63,000	226
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$5,000	109
@CL.P	1	-$1,380	8		@YM	3	$1,345	31
@HO.P	1	$1,451	12		@NQ	3	-$1,385	15
		Total Open Trades			$138,149
		Total Closed Trades			-$23,758
		Total			$114,391

Good luck and have a great evening!

The dollar continued to take it on the chin today, despite the fact that treasury yields continue to climb. Equity indexes didn't do much today, despite lower oil prices. The one thing that did rally, again, is the metals, particularly Copper. Tight demand is keeping a strong bid in for the metal, and production deficit projections are keeping users nervous.

Our TNR model was in neutral today, but we are calling for a Trending day in ES and NQ tomorrow.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$269	1		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$6,550	58		@SB.P	3	$8,198	146
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$3,640	10
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$33,990	157
@CD.P	3	$1,480	5		@SI.P	1	$12,870	108
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$69,750	225
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	-2	-$1,275	16		@ES	2	$4,400	108
@CL.P	1	-$420	7		@YM	3	$1,345	29
@HO.P	1	$3,429	11		@NQ	3	-$2,390	14
		Total Open Trades			$141,836
		Total Closed Trades			-$23,758
		Total			$118,078

Good luck, and have a great evening!

The roller coaster ride continues in the precious metals, with Silver rallying $1.00/oz today and gold surging almost $10/oz. Copper, on the other hand, isn't on a roller coaster... it is more like a rocketship, going straight up.

In other markets, Energy was mixed, the CAD rallied, Cotton and Sugar fell, and bonds fell on the back of a very optimistic consumer confidence report. We added a new position today, selling 2 contracts of the June 10yr note futures at the close. That position will be reflected in tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model called for a trending day today, and that is pretty much what we saw. Unfortunately we were whipsawed out of our NQ short, going long mid-morning and getting stopped out of that long for a money management stop. Fortunately, our ES short bailed us out, finishing net total on the day positive $37. We are calling for a neutral day in both ES and NQ tomorrow.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,863	57		@SB.P	3	$8,232	145
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$4,135	9
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$31,650	156
@CD.P	3	$760	4		@SI.P	1	$11,595	107
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$66,025	224
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	-2	-$1,650	15		@ES	2	$4,425	107
@CL.P	1	$530	6		@YM	3	$1,345	28
@HO.P	1	$4,533	10		@NQ	3	-$2,165	13
		Total Open Trades			$135,278
		Total Closed Trades			-$23,758
		Total			$111,520

Good luck, and have a pleasant evening!

As I mentioned on Friday's post, I expect to see some volatility in our results over the next few weeks as the market digests some of the massive moves going on in Energy, Currencies, Metals and the like. Silver had another dismal day today, again losing more than $2.00 per oz. We are hovering right above our stop level for Silver (11.511 on the May contract). Gold and Copper seem to have held in a bit better.

We exited our Short Japanese Yen position today at the close. The weakness being seen in the dollar based on dovish comments by the Fed proved to be insurmountable for the time being. That position will be reflected in tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model called for a reversion trade in NQ today, and we netted $294 on two trades. Tomorrow we are calling for a Trending day in both ES and NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$4,675	56		@SB.P	3	$9,072	144
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$2,680	8
@JY.P	-1	-$3,413	54		@GC.P	3	$28,560	155
@CD.P	3	-$320	3		@SI.P	1	$7,670	106
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$55,550	223
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	-2	-$1,125	14		@ES	2	$4,950	106
@CL.P	1	$980	5		@YM	3	$2,260	28
@HO.P	1	$3,425	9		@NQ	3	-$1,745	12
		Total Open Trades			$113,219
		Total Closed Trades			-$20,145
		Total			$93,074

Good luck, and have a great weekend.

We saw a bit of a bounce back in the precious metals today, but Silver is still well below its impressive high set on Wednesday. Copper had a strong rally today as well, closing the week at a new high.

In other markets, our Cotton and Sugar trades continue to do well, but our currency trades don't seem to be panning out. Crude oil and Heating oil both ended the week at new highs, with covering from nervous traders driving up prices ahead of the weekend. As the charts show, our Open Equity curve for System B continues to grow at a torrid pace, but I expect to see some volatility creep into the picture as the markets in general get whipsawed on a day to day basis.

Our TNR model made some money on the NQ selloff today, netting $879 on two trades. We are calling for a Reversion day in NQ on Monday, and a Neutral day in ES.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,050	55		@SB.P	3	$9,610	143
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$2,065	7
@JY.P	-1	-$1,163	53		@GC.P	3	$32,040	154
@CD.P	3	-$800	2		@SI.P	1	$19,970	105
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$55,575	222
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	-2	-$675	13		@ES	2	$5,200	105
@CL.P	1	$2,820	4		@YM	3	$2,110	26
@HO.P	1	$5,294	8		@NQ	3	-$1,895	11
		Total Open Trades			$135,201
		Total Closed Trades			-$20,145
		Total			$115,056

Good luck, and have a fantastic weekend!

Live by the sword, die by the sword as they say, and the precious metals, which have been so huge for us over the past 2 weeks in particular, hurt us just as bad today. Silver dropped an unbelievable $2.07 per oz in today's trading! That has to be some kind of record, doesn't it? Fortunately, many of our other positions moved in our favor, including a big move down in Cotton (we are short) which alleviated some of our suffering.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in NQ today, and we were stopped out of our opening short relatively quickly, for a loss of $558 on the day. Tomorrow we are calling for a trending day again in NQ and a neutral day in ES.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,050	54		@SB.P	3	$8,299	142
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$1,630	6
@JY.P	-1	-$450	52		@GC.P	3	$28,320	153
@CD.P	3	-$1,040	1		@SI.P	1	$17,770	104
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$46,650	221
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	-2	-$825	12		@ES	2	$5,175	104
@CL.P	1	$1,340	3		@YM	3	$2,170	25
@HO.P	1	$4,344	7		@NQ	3	-$545	10
		Total Open Trades			$117,889
		Total Closed Trades			-$20,145
		Total			$97,744

Good luck, and have a great evening!

More of the same today, with precious metals continuing to trace out parabolic rallies. Bonds were off, basically giving up all of yesterday's gains. Sugar fell and energy rallied. Equities put in a consolidation day after yesterday's blow-off to the upside.

The Canadian dollar had an impressive run over the past 2 - 3 weeks, and we bought today's strength, getting long 3 contracts at the close. That position will be reflected in tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model was calling for a reversion day in both contracts, and although that is what materialized, we were stopped out of our NQ long this morning at the low tick of the day for a $558 loss. Our ES position had 3 trades, making $379, for a net loss on the day of -$179. We are calling for a trending day in NQ tomorrow.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$4,800	53		@SB.P	3	$9,240	141
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	-$80	5
@JY.P	-1	-$738	51		@GC.P	3	$32,190	152
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$27,755	103
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$46,525	220
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	-2	-$1,100	11		@ES	2	$5,025	103
@CL.P	1	$1,770	2		@YM	3	$1,090	24
@HO.P	1	$4,710	6		@NQ	3	-$365	9
		Total Open Trades			$130,822
		Total Closed Trades			-$20,145
		Total			$110,677

Good luck and have a great evening!

Is the Fed ready to pause in the fed funds cycle? It sure seemed that way to a lot of people today, sending the equity indexes and interest rate futures soaring. It is hard to believe inflation is contained when one looks at all the other commodity markets - Gold, Silver, Copper, the grains, Energy, Sugar, virtually everything was in rally mode today.

Our TNR model was calling for a Reversion day in NQ today, and we hit our money management stop on the massive rally for a loss of $558. Tomorrow, we are calling for a reversion day in ES and NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$4,363	52		@SB.P	3	$9,542	140
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	-$5	4
@JY.P	-1	-$738	50		@GC.P	3	$28,380	151
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$24,070	102
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$47,100	219
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	-2	-$1,250	10		@ES	2	$4,850	102
@CL.P	1	$2,490	1		@YM	3	$1,090	23
@HO.P	1	$4,227	5		@NQ	3	-$650	8
		Total Open Trades			$123,469
		Total Closed Trades			-$20,145
		Total			$103,324

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Our YTD equity curves are starting to look quite impressive... System B continues to make new equity highs, with the almost unbelievable strength in the metals continuing to build on our YTD gains. Over the past week, we went short three contracts of Cotton and long one of Heating Oil, and we bought one contract of Crude today on the close.

Our TNR daytrading model also has hit a sweet spot, dragging us back into positive territory again over the past week. What follows is our trading results for the past 4 trading sessions:

NQ:

1133	Buy	04/1009:45	RL	$1,735.75	3	$297.00
	Sell	04/1010:15	RS	$1,741.50
1134	Sell Short	04/1010:15	RS	$1,741.50	3	$432.00
	Cover	04/1013:20	RL	$1,733.50
1135	Buy	04/1013:20	RL	$1,733.50	3	($78.00)
	Sell	04/1016:00	Sell#2	$1,733.00
1136	Sell Short	04/1110:15	TS	$1,730.75	3	$657.00
	Cover	04/1116:00	Cover#2	$1,719.00
1137	Sell Short	04/1210:15	RS	$1,723.50	3	$342.00
	Cover	04/1210:40	RL	$1,717.00
1138	Buy	04/1210:40	RL	$1,717.00	3	$42.00
	Sell	04/1216:00	Sell#2	$1,718.50
1139	Buy	04/1310:10	TL	$1,720.50	3	$207.00
	Sell	04/1316:00	Sell#2	$1,724.75

Total for NQ: $1899

ES

1156	Sell Short	04/10/06 10:15	RS	$1,307.00	2	$318.00
	Cover	04/10/06 13:35	RL	$1,303.50
1157	Buy	04/10/06 13:35	RL	$1,303.50	2	$18.00
	Sell	04/10/06 16:00	Sell#2	$1,304.00
1158	Sell Short	04/11/06 10:10	TS	$1,303.75	2	$968.00
	Cover	04/11/06 16:00	Cover#2	$1,293.75
1159	Sell Short	04/12/06 09:40	RS	$1,296.50	2	$243.00
	Cover	04/12/06 10:35	RL	$1,293.75
1160	Buy	04/12/06 10:35	RL	$1,293.75	2	$143.00
	Sell	04/12/06 16:00	Sell#2	$1,295.50
1161	Buy	04/13/06 10:10	TL	$1,294.25	2	$93.00
	Sell	04/13/06 16:00	Sell#2	$1,295.50
1162	Sell Short	04/17/06 13:00	TS	$1,292.75	2	$168.00
	Cover	04/17/06 15:40	TL	$1,290.75
1163	Buy	04/17/06 15:40	TL	$1,290.75	2	$68.00
	Sell	04/17/06 16:00	Sell#2	$1,291.75

Total ES = $2019


As you can see, today we had a trending day in ES, and made $236 in two trades. We are calling for a reversion day in NQ tomorrow.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$5,300	51		@SB.P	3	$7,392	139
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	-$3,350	3
@JY.P	-1	-$275	49		@GC.P	3	$27,030	150
@CD.P	0	$0	0		@SI.P	1	$21,970	101
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$43,300	218
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	-2	-$850	9		@ES	2	$2,800	101
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	3	-$980	22
@HO.P	1	$3,055	4		@NQ	3	-$2,405	7
		Total Open Trades			$102,987
		Total Closed Trades			-$20,145
		Total			$82,842

Good luck and have a great evening!