It appears that the markets didn't know how to react to the Fed meeting today. Things should sort themselves out tomorrow a bit better. The cash equity indexes finished modestly lower, but after 4:00, we saw a more pronounced sell off.


System B has had a great January, and we again had strong performances today by the precious metals and the CAD. Sugar had a second day of losses, as did Copper. Crude closed off today as well, with today's OPEC meeting in Vienna leaving output unchanged.

We closed January with a gain in open equity of $39,967. That represents an almost 20% gain on our $200,000 notional capital base.

Our TNR system didn't fare as well this month. Today we were calling for a trending day in both ES and NQ, and we were whipsawed pretty violently. We lost $646 in ES, and $1134 in NQ, for a combined net loss of $1780. As you can see from the graph, this brings our trade equity contribution from the TNR system to $1954 for the month. Tomorrow is a Trending day for NQ.

Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	3	$11,222	87
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$15,390	98
@CD.P	2	$2,020	7		@SI.P	1	$4,975	49
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$9,325	166
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$2,425	48
@CL.P	1	$1,470	9		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	2	$1,580	33
		Total Open Trades			$48,407
		Total Closed Trades			-$8,440
		Total			$39,967

Good luck, and have a great evening

Crude and the precious metals led the charge today, with Silver setting another 17 year high today. The metals rally continues to look healthy, with measured gains in both the precious and base metals occurring week after week.

Our CAD position started off strong today, and finished up on the day, while Sugar had it's first real down day since January 9th.

Finally, we are getting pretty close to our entry point on a short position in the 5 year treasury contract - If we get a decent down day, we will be sellers.



Our TNR model was looking for a reversion day in NQ today, and that is what we saw. Granted, it took almost all day for us to make any money, but the late day chop allowed us to pull out a net total gain of $216 on 2 trades. Tomorrow, TNR is calling for a Trending day in both ES and NQ.




Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	3	$11,827	86
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$14,070	97
@CD.P	2	$820	6		@SI.P	1	$4,425	48
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$9,375	165
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$3,375	47
@CL.P	1	$1,900	8		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	2	$2,580	32
		Total Open Trades			$48,372
		Total Closed Trades			-$8,440
		Total			$39,932

Good luck, and have a great evening!

We saw general across the board strength today, including unexpected strength in equities on the back of a fairly weak GDP report. Some of that must have been spillover from the big day that we saw in Tokyo and Hong Kong overnight.

Silver again outperformed gold, with the mainstream press picking up the story of a lack of Silver inventories. The much awaited Silver ETF is also expected to take supplies out of circulation (they need to hold Silver to back up the fund). Silver managed to eke out a small gain on the day, after being up substantially earlier.

Our System B is having an exceptional month, with our open and closed equity up almost 40k in January. Again, let me emphasize, gains aren't gains until the trade is closed out, and we may be giving a substantial portion of this back in the not too distant future.

Our TNR model was neutral today, but is indicating a Reversion day in NQ on Monday.

Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	3	$13,205	85
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$11,970	96
@CD.P	2	$280	5		@SI.P	1	$3,575	47
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$9,550	164
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$3,425	46
@CL.P	1	$1,310	7		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	2	$2,560	31
		Total Open Trades			$45,875
		Total Closed Trades			-$8,440
		Total			$37,435

Good luck, and have a great weekend!

Silver, Sugar and Equities were our big performers today. Silver has caught quite a bid over the past week or so, as many people seem to be awakening to the fact that production is actually lower than commercial consumption, so the amount of above ground silver is shrinking.

Let me say that again... unlike Gold, the amount of above ground Silver is shrinking every year. So regardless of your views on Silver as a precious metal/store of value, there is a basic supply/demand story that greatly favors Silver over Gold.

Our TNR model called for a Reversion day in ES today, and that is basically what we saw. We put on 4 trades, two winners and two losers, for a net gain of $122 on the day. Tomorrow we are calling for a Neutral day in both ES and NQ.

Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	3	$12,768	84
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$12,300	95
@CD.P	2	$240	4		@SI.P	1	$3,575	46
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$7,975	163
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$2,275	45
@CL.P	1	-$190	6		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	2	$1,580	30
		Total Open Trades			$40,523
		Total Closed Trades			-$8,440
		Total			$32,083

Good luck, and have a great evening!

The metals (Gold, Silver and Copper) all had great days today, gapping up and remaining up for the whole session. Silver in particular showed impressive strength. The interesting thing about the metals, is that we have seen very few days with across the board weakness. Generally, at least one of the three markets hangs in there even when the other two are down significantly (like last Friday for example). When all three start to tank together, it's probably gong to be time to head for the exits.

Our 3 day old Corn position is no longer. We exited at the close, a very unsatisfying trade. This will be reflected in tomorrow's reports.

TNR was neutral today, but is indicating a reversion day for ES tomorrow.

Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	0	$0	0		@SB.P	3	$10,853	83
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	0	$0	0		@GC.P	3	$13,080	94
@CD.P	2	$120	3		@SI.P	1	$3,100	45
@C.P	-6	-$3,200	5		@HG.P	2	$8,075	162
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$1,600	44
@CL.P	1	-$600	5		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	2	$1,200	29
		Total Open Trades			$34,228
		Total Closed Trades			-$5,040
		Total			$29,188

Good luck, and have a great evening!