We got a bit of a rebound today, with the metals clawing their way back throughout the day. The Canadian Dollar also had an excellent showing today, setting a new high against the dollar. Unfortunately, dollar weakness worked against us in our Yen position, and we are a very close to hitting our stop at .8698.

Our TNR model called for a trending day in ES today, and we caught the initial move down , but we reversed long at 1:30. That proved to be the wrong move, and we were stopped out of that second position for a total net loss on the day of -$189. Tomorrow we are calling for a Reversion day in both ES and NQ.

So we end the month of February up $21K year to date in our System B model, and down $800 in our TNR model. As I said in an earlier post, February hasn't been the kindest month to us, but here's hoping March works out better!

Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$800	18		@SB.P	3	$6,922	106
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$2,850	16		@GC.P	3	$12,060	117
@CD.P	2	$2,220	26		@SI.P	1	$4,170	68
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$7,475	185
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$2,150	68
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$550	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ
		Total Open Trades			$33,497
		Total Closed Trades			-$12,400
		Total			$21,097

Good luck and have a great evening!

The Canadian dollar outperformed the Yen today, but not by much. Since we are short Yen and long CAD, that is a good thing. Also, 5-year treasuries lost a bit more ground today, and the S&P futures closed up a smidge. That is all the good news (and it isn't all that good!). On the flip side, Sugar tanked big time, and the metals all slid. Our portfolio took a bit of a hit. Tomorrow is the last day of Feb, let's see if we can get some of today's losses back tomorrow.

Our TNR model did OK today, calling for a trending day in ES and NQ. The closing 15 minute sell off didn't help matters, but we wound up clearing $444 on 2 trades in ES and 2 trades in NQ. We are calling for a Trending day in ES again tomorrow, and Neutral in NQ.

Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$1,738	17		@SB.P	3	$6,283	105
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$2,463	15		@GC.P	3	$9,990	116
@CD.P	2	$1,600	25		@SI.P	1	$3,620	67
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$5,075	184
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$3,925	67
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$29,768
		Total Closed Trades			-$12,400
		Total			$17,368

Good luck, and have a great evening!

The Yen rally seems to have stabilized somewhat, and our CAD position moved back in our favor. Crude really spiked on the back of the Saudi Arabia attacks, bringing Sugar along with it. Bonds rallied out of the chutes, with market participants loving the weaker than expected durable goods data. By the end of the day, however, everyone was shying away from bonds, which ended down on the day.

Our TNR model lost $558, going short in the AM and getting stopped out at the highs of the day around 3:00. We are calling for a Trending day in both contracts for Monday.

Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$1,425	16		@SB.P	3	$9,878	104
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$1,813	14		@GC.P	3	$11,250	115
@CD.P	2	$360	24		@SI.P	1	$4,270	66
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$8,900	183
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$3,825	66
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$38,096
		Total Closed Trades			-$12,400
		Total			$25,696

Good luck, and have a great weekend!

Comments from Japan overnight did quite a number on our short Yen position, with traders eyeing the exits on a very crowded Yen carry trade. We haven't seen the stampede yet, but I'm sure that today's action got some people to sit up and take notice. US bonds sold off on the news as well.

Gold, Silver and Copper all looked pretty weak all day. Equities were nothing to write home about, with the Dow looking weakest of the 3 indexes. Oh yeah, Sugar tanked again, I guess it can't buck that weak Crude price action forever.

Our TNR model called for a reversion day in NQ, and that is what we got. We entered 3 trades, two made us $342 each, and one lost us $18, for a net gain of $666 on the day. Tomorrow we are calling for a Trending day in NQ and a Neutral day in ES.

Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$1,488	15		@SB.P	3	$9,475	103
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$1,588	13		@GC.P	3	$8,160	114
@CD.P	2	-$320	23		@SI.P	1	$2,925	65
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$8,525	182
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$3,550	65
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$32,215
		Total Closed Trades			-$12,400
		Total			$19,815

Good luck, and have a great evening!

Bonds and equities seemed to like today's CPI number, although it came in higher than the consensus estimates... I guess the core number is all that is important - who uses food and energy anyway?!? We won't complain, however, with the results. Sugar was up again today, and to a certain extent seems to have decoupled somewhat with Crude prices (which slipped).

Although we don't have any grain exposure, the grains slipped some today, despite continued concerns about the winter wheat crop in much of the US, Canada, and Central Europe.

Our TNR model booked two trades today, one winner and one loser. Net loss on the day was $98. We are calling for a Reversion day again in NQ tomorrow, and neutral in ES.

Our positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on		Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on
@US.P	0	$0	0		@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0		@KC.P	0	$0	0
@FV.P	-4	$613	14		@SB.P	3	$12,029	102
@EC.P	0	$0	0		@CT.P	0	$0	0
@JY.P	-1	-$313	12		@GC.P	3	$9,870	113
@CD.P	2	$260	22		@SI.P	1	$3,445	64
@C.P	0	$0	0		@HG.P	2	$11,475	181
@W.P	0	$0	0		@LB.P	0	$0	0
@S.P	0	$0	0		@ES	2	$3,750	64
@CL.P	0	$0	0		@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0		@NQ	0	$0	0
		Total Open Trades			$41,129
		Total Closed Trades			-$12,400
		Total			$28,729

Good luck, and have a great evening!