A Capital View

2006-09-07T17:11:00.000-04:00

It's been a while, with some system issues taking up most of my time, but I'm back with (hopefully) regular updates again.

The System B model has been performing well over the past month, with our core position in Copper continuing to help our performance numbers. Virtually no positions have changed since our last post on 7/29, with several exceptions. We covered our short in Cotton on 8/3, for a gain of $3,365, and we sold our long Crude position on 8/14 for a loss of $3,850. Finally, yesterday, we sold 1 Contract of cotton on the close (again).

Good luck and have a great evening!

2006-07-28T16:35:00.000-04:00

I will be out of the Office for two week starting Tuesday, 1 August. I will update all trades when I return on the 15th.

This morning's GDP report seemed to cheer US stock and bond markets, raising expectations that the Fed is either done tightening, or very close to being done. It is an interesting sign that reports of a slowdown in growth combined with the highest core inflation rate since 1994 could have the positive reaction that it did.

In other markets, Copper caught a late day bid resulting from nervousness ahead of the Escondida copper mine strike (the vote should be tallied by tonight, but the earliest a strike would happen would be Aug 7th). The grains didn't do much, but there were reports in the market about a widening problem in Florida with Asian Soybean Rust. Gold rallied, Silver was down on the day.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in ES, and that is what we saw. We put on one trade in the morning pop, and rode it all the way to our 4:00 exit. Monday we are looking for a Neutral day in both contracts.

Today's TNR trade:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price	Contracts	P/L

Sell	10:50	1502.75	ES	Cover	16:00	1487.50	2	$578.00

System B positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0	@KC.P	-1	$606	42
@FV.P	0	$0	0	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$5,980	75
@JY.P	-1	-$2,038	7	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	-$200	5	@HG.P	2	$81,475	289
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$4,728	48
@S.P	-3	$1,188	7	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$91,739
		Total Closed Trades		-$56
		Total		$91,684

Good luck, and have a relaxing weekend!

2006-07-27T18:21:00.000-04:00

Let's see... we have Nigerian unrest in addition to the ongoing situation in the middle east combining to prop up crude today... Threats of a strike or walk-out in a south american copper mine helping out copper prices... continued good (growing) weather in the mid-west hitting soybean prices... and the normal uncertainty around the U.S. economy playing havoc with the dollar and U.S. equities.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in ES and NQ, and we finally got what we were looking for. We hit quite a slump in July, but maybe this is the end of it. Tomorrow we are looking for another Trending day in ES, and Neutral in NQ.

Today's TNR Trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price	Contracts	P/L

Sell	10:50	1274.50	ES	Cover	16:00	1268.25	2	$593.00
Buy	09:55	1511.50	NQ	Sell	10:50	1502.75	2	-$382.00
Sell	10:50	1502.75	NQ	Cover	16:00	1487.50	2	$578.00

System B positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0	@KC.P	-1	$1,581	41
@FV.P	0	$0	0	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$6,190	74
@JY.P	-1	-$1,000	6	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	-$300	4	@HG.P	2	$77,950	288
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$4,420	47
@S.P	-3	$1,563	6	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$90,404
		Total Closed Trades		-$56
		Total		$90,348

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-26T16:39:00.000-04:00

Rains and promise of cooler weather in the midwest helped to deflate grain prices today. Also, hawkish comments coming out of Japan put the dollar into a bit of a tailspin, and bonds resumed their steady march upward. The precious metals rallied, but Copper couldn't keep up, closing below yesterday's mark. Try this or this.

Our TNR model wanted a trending day in NQ today, but it looked much more like a reversion day. Tomorrow we are looking for a Trending day in both ES and NQ.

Today's TNR trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price	Contracts	P/L

Sell	09:40	1491.50	NQ	Cover	12:30	1497.50	2	-$272.00
Buy	12:30	1497.50	NQ	Sell	16:00	1498.75	2	$18.00

Today's TNR P/L: -$254
YTD TNR P/L: $5651

System B open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0	@KC.P	-1	$2,069	40
@FV.P	0	$0	0	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$6,610	73
@JY.P	-1	-$625	5	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	$50	3	@HG.P	2	$76,500	287
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$4,530	46
@S.P	-3	$400	5	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$89,534
		Total Closed Trades		-$56
		Total		$89,478

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-25T17:41:00.000-04:00

Copper rallied and Crude had kind of a weak showing today. US Treasuries sold of today, but the dollar was strong across the board. Corn and Soybeans opened real strong, but gave almost all of the morning gains up by the close, while Wheat was weak all day. Lumber faded again. Not much of a real pattern in any of our markets right now, just a lot of give and take. Maybe its just those summer doldrums. Even the VIX is settling down to the levels we saw prior to the latest outbreak of mid-east hostilities.

Our TNR model was calling for a reversion day in ES, but the late day rally did us in again. We started the day with two money-makers, but wound up getting stopped out for a loss on the day. Tomorrow we are calling for a neutral day in ES and a Trending day in NQ.

Today's TNR Trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price	Contracts	P/L

Sell	10:05	1268.00	ES	Cover	10:40	1266.25	2	$143.00
Buy	10:40	1266.25	ES	Sell	12:35	1266.75	2	$18.00
Sell	12:35	1266.75	ES	Cover	15:20	1273.50	2	-$707.00

Daily TNR P/L: -$546
YTD TNR P/L: $5905

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0	@KC.P	-1	$2,219	39
@FV.P	0	$0	0	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$6,520	72
@JY.P	-1	$163	4	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	-$650	2	@HG.P	2	$77,075	286
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$4,684	45
@S.P	-3	-$125	4	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$89,885
		Total Closed Trades		-$56
		Total		$89,830

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-24T17:06:00.000-04:00

Crude started the day with a $73 handle and that got the equity market's juices flowing. No one wants to miss that countertrend rally when things settle down in the mideast, and with Condi's surprise visit to Beruit it looked like something was happening. We ended the day with Crude trading well above $75, but equities were able to sustain the rally, finishing the day quite strong.

Our TNR model was looking for a Trending day in NQ, but we reversed out of our long at the mid-day sell-off. When the rally started back up in earnest we were on the wrong side, and were stopped out with a money management stop. Tomorrow we are looking for a reversion day in ES and a neutral day in NQ.

Today's TNR Trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price	Contracts	P/L

Buy	09:50	1474.25	NQ	Sell	13:10	1478.00	2	$118.00
Sell	13:10	1478.00	NQ	Cover	15:15	1489.75	2	-$502.00

Today's total P/L: -$384
YTD TNR Total P/L: $6451

Our open System B trades:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	0	$0	0	@KC.P	-1	$2,613	38
@FV.P	0	$0	0	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$5,365	71
@JY.P	-1	-$150	3	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-4	-$550	1	@HG.P	2	$73,125	285
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$4,552	44
@S.P	-3	$175	3	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$85,130
		Total Closed Trades		-$56
		Total		$85,074

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-21T17:26:00.000-04:00

It was a pretty tough week for our models - Copper slid hard, the bonds rallied (not good for our short position) and even Cotton moved against us. On the plus side, our Lumber position continues to gain ground and our Soybean short moved decidedly in our favor today.

The continued strength in Bonds have finally taken its toll. We covered our Five year note position (4 contracts) and our Ten year note position (2 contracts) today at the close.

In addition, the continued grain weakness has us selling short 4 contracts of September Corn today at the close.

All of these new positions will be reflected in Monday's reports.

Our TNR model had another tough day, getting short first thing in the morning, and then reversing long, only to be whipsawed down and stopped out at 12:50.

Today's trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price	Contracts	P/L

Sell	09:45	1254.25	ES	Cover	11:00	1252.00	2	$193.00
Buy	11:00	1252.00	ES	Sell	12:50	1245.50	2	-$682.00

Today's P/L: -$489
TNR YTD P/L : $6833

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$950	61	@KC.P	-1	$2,031	37
@FV.P	-4	$5,800	118	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$6,100	70
@JY.P	-1	-$738	2	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$70,175	284
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$4,068	43
@S.P	-3	$1,113	2	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$87,599
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,506
		Total		$83,094

2006-07-20T16:36:00.000-04:00

Bonds up, dollar down - sounds like business as usual, but the equities and interest rate markets do seem to be decoupling a bit in here. Maybe there really is something to this idea of a slowing economy. The metals all were hit today, with copper fading in a fairly large way.

Our TNR model wound up making a very small amount on three trades. The reversion action worked well in the morning, but the afternoon swoon, with no reaction rallies, hurt us a bit. Tomorrow we are calling for a Trending day in ES and a neutral day in NQ.

Today's trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price	Contracts	P/L

Buy	10:00	1264.50	ES	Sell	11:05	1267.25	1	$121.50
Sell	11:05	1267.25	ES	Cover	13:45	1261.50	1	$271.50
Buy	13:45	1261.50	ES	Sell	16:00	1255.75	1	-$303.50

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$1,075	60	@KC.P	-1	$1,956	36
@FV.P	-4	$5,613	117	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$8,005	69
@JY.P	-1	-$175	1	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$74,500	283
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$3,881	42
@S.P	-3	$25	1	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$92,730
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,506
		Total		$88,224

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-19T16:36:00.000-04:00

Today could easily wind up being an inflection point. Most of the interest rate sensitive sectors (bonds, equities, currencies) traced out substantial reversals after digesting Bernanke's remarks. Just looking at it in aggregate, it appears that the markets aren't taking Mr. Bernanke's inflation fighting credentials very seriously... If it was a staring contest between Bernanke and the market, Bernanke just blinked.

We added two new positions today amid all the turmoil - we sold 3 contracts of September Corn short at the close (again) and we sold 1 contract of Japanese Yen short at the close. Those positions will be reflected in tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model was in neutral in both contracts today. Tomorrow we are looking for a reversion day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$638	59	@KC.P	-1	$1,450	35
@FV.P	-4	$6,300	116	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$7,240	68
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$83,700	282
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$4,002	41
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$102,055
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,506
		Total		$97,549

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-18T23:04:00.000-04:00

We had some serious technical glitches today, so sorry for the late post...

Bonds continued to show weakness for the second straight day, with worries about Bernanke's testimony to congress continuing to dominate. Crude and Gold were hit pretty hard despite the ongoing military action in Lebanon. This could be a buy the rumor, sell the news type of event (the knee-jerk buying on fears of a widening of the conflict, and then selling once the news is fully discounted).

Just a bit more weakness in Soybeans and in the Japanese Yen could get us short those two markets in here.

Our TNR model had a bad day, with three losing trades out of three. We are looking at a neutral day in both contracts for Wednesday.

Today's trades:

	Entry	Entry			Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price		Exit	Time	Price	Contracts	P/L

Buy	09:40	1488.25	NQ	Sell	10:15	1480.50	2	-$342.00
Sell	10:15	1480.50	NQ	Cover	16:00	1483.00	2	-$132.00
Buy	09:45	1245.50	ES	Sell	11:00	1238.75	2	-$707.00

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$456	58	@KC.P	-1	$1,469	34
@FV.P	-4	$7,738	115	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$8,035	67
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$82,750	281
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$3,749	40
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$104,197
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,506
		Total		$99,691

Good luck and have a great evening!

2006-07-17T18:49:00.000-04:00

Today was something of a reversal of Friday's moves. Investors seem to think that events in the middle east, while still alarming, aren't spiraling out of control as was feared going into the weekend. Notable moves today include sell-offs in Gold and Crude. There was some material weakness in the grains today again, particularly in Soybeans.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day today, and we didn't see that. Tomorrow we are looking for a Trending day in both contracts.

Today's Trades:

	Entry	Entry		Exit	Exit
Entry	Time	Price	Exit	Time	Price	Contracts	P/L

Buy	09:50	1481.00	Sell	15:15	1476.00	2	$(232.00)
Sell	15:15	1476.00	Cover	16:00	1477.75	2	$(102.00)

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$450	57	@KC.P	-1	$1,450	33
@FV.P	-4	$6,550	114	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$10,150	66
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$84,000	280
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$3,837	39
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$105,537
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,506
		Total		$101,032

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-14T16:27:00.000-04:00

Not a bad end to the week - most of our core positions moved in our favor today, with the exception of bonds and Lumber. Crude had a big day again, but we are not involved (yet). The flight to quality bid continues to flow into US fixed income, the US dollar, and other safe havens. Our system equity is looking good, closing the week over at $105,000, and combined equity (Sytem B and TNR) is almost $115,000 - a 57% return on our capital so far this year!

Monday could prove to be a memorable day in the markets if anything big happens in the Middle East. Lets all hope that things settle down over there soon.

Our TNR model was looking for a reversion day in ES today, but instead we had another decent sized slide. We put on one trade, and were stopped out for a money management loss of -$652. As you can see from the chart, we are up over $8000 in the TNR model YTD.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$575	56	@KC.P	-1	$1,038	32
@FV.P	-4	$6,238	113	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$11,050	65
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$89,650	279
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$3,331	38
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$110,731
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,506
		Total		$106,226

Good luck, and have a great weekend!

2006-07-13T16:05:00.000-04:00

Israel-Lebannon conflict, Mumbai bombings, Iranian nukes and North Korean Missiles have all caused some uneasiness in the global financial community, and we are seeing not only a bit of a run on the energy complex, but a bit of a flight to quality bid to US treasuries as well. The uneasiness probably has had an impact on equity prices as well, with another difficult day for the U.S. indices.

Our TNR model wound up making $256 on 7 trades today (5 ES and 2 NQ). The morning chop worked well for our reversion day setup, but the long slide in the afternoon stopped us out of our positions. Tomorrow we are looking for a Reversion day in ES and a neutral day in NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	-$388	55	@KC.P	-1	$119	31
@FV.P	-4	$6,675	112	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$9,775	64
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$87,850	278
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$3,452	37
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$107,483
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,506
		Total		$102,978

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-12T16:44:00.000-04:00

A mixed bag today, with dollar strength and bond weakness in the morning. Bonds strengthened througout the day, however, and we finshed just below yesterday's levels. Equities had a tough time all day today. Crude finished above $75 again, and corn continued to soar (some energy related, some drought related).

Our TNR model was in Neutral today, so no trades. Tomorrow we are looking for a reversion day in both ES and NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$19	54	@KC.P	-1	$400	30
@FV.P	-4	$7,238	111	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$8,725	63
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	0	$0	0	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$87,275	277
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$2,363	36
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$106,019
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,506
		Total		$101,514

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-11T16:23:00.000-04:00

The bombings in India apparently had some kind of "flight to quality" bid for US Treasuries today. That eventually found its way to the equity markets, with US indexes reversing some decent sized mid-day losses, to end the day on the plus side. Crude and the precious metals also benefited from global turmoil...

The continued sell-off in the Canadian Dollar has prompted us to liquidate our position, selling 3 contracts today at the close. That position will be reflected in tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model had a nice day, getting short in the morning, and reversing soon enough to catch the afternoon rally. We made $1011 on two trades. For tomorrow we are looking at a Neutral day in both ES and NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$19	53	@KC.P	-1	$456	29
@FV.P	-4	$7,238	110	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$10,315	62
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$130	57	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$85,775	276
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$1,857	35
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$105,790
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,436
		Total		$101,354

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-10T16:59:00.000-04:00

The precious metals were off, but Copper rallied today - along with grain prices. Other than that, not much to report... Crude was off, NatGas was up, Coffee and Cotton rallied, Lumber was off... The Dow was up, the Nasdaq was off... ho hum - sounds like a lazy summer day to me.

Our TNR model was looking for a reversion day in NQ. We caught the opening pop and drop, but we then hit our money management stop as the market continued to tank throughout the day. We lost a total of -$204 on two trades. Tomorrow we are calling for a Trending day in ES and a neutral day in NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$425	52	@KC.P	-1	$119	28
@FV.P	-4	$7,738	109	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$10,840	61
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$1,630	56	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$83,150	275
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$2,011	34
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$105,912
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,436
		Total		$101,477

Good luck and have a great evening!

2006-07-07T16:09:00.000-04:00

The non-farm payroll numbers certainly fooled a few people this morning... weak number, equities rise, right?! Whoops - I guess a weak number is now means bad for the economy so we sell off. What do you mean you didn't get the memo?

Overall, today was perhaps a bit deflationary - we did not have a single physical commodity that we track that rose in price today (currencies, bonds, etc are not physical commodities). Everything sold off. Let's hope that continues into next week!

Our TNR model stunk today - we were calling for a trending day in both contracts, and although we did trend, we were whipsawed out of our positions for a net total loss of $-1,122. Monday we are looking for a neutral day in ES and a reversion day in NQ.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$456	51	@KC.P	-1	$381	27
@FV.P	-4	$7,738	108	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$11,470	60
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$4,450	55	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	0	$0	0	@HG.P	2	$81,400	274
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$1,417	33
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$107,312
		Total Closed Trades		-$4,436
		Total		$102,877

Good luck, and have a great weekend!

2006-07-06T21:39:00.000-04:00

Bonds closed around where they opened yesterday, with most likely a lot of position squaring ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payroll report. Not a whole lot of movement anywhere else, with the exception of the metals. Gold and Silver continued their rallies, and Copper caught a major updraft, finishing at it's highest level since the end of May.

The grain rally has stopped us out of our short Corn position. We covered our 5 contracts at the close. That position will be reflected in tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model was calling for a Reversion day in NQ, and we had one winner before being stopped out for a money management stop. Net total losses on the day were -$351. Tomorow we are looking for a Trending day in both ES and NQ.

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,175	50	@KC.P	-1	-$763	26
@FV.P	-4	$8,550	107	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$9,550	59
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$4,600	54	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	-$2,888	14	@HG.P	2	$84,875	273
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$1,131	32
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$106,231
		Total Closed Trades		-$1,348
		Total		$104,884

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-05T18:23:00.000-04:00

Bonds melted down on the stronger than expected ADP payroll data, which indicates stronger than expected non-farm payroll data on Friday. Fed Fund Futures have dramatically increased the implied liklihood of another Fed tightening in August as a result of that data. Higher rates hit the equities markets, along with higher oil prices. All in all, a messy day in the US financial markets.

Our TNR model also didn't do very well, calling for a trending day, but not taking advantage of the early sell-off until too late. Net total, we lost $786 on 3 trades. For Thursday, we are calling for a Reversion day in NQ and a Neutral day in ES.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,675	49	@KC.P	-1	-$913	25
@FV.P	-4	$9,113	106	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$9,100	58
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$5,020	53	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	-$1,513	13	@HG.P	2	$74,225	272
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$1,142	31
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$97,850
		Total Closed Trades		-$1,348
		Total		$96,502

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-07-03T17:33:00.000-04:00

It was a fairly quiet, low volume day prior to tomorrow's independence day holiday. Metals were mixed, bonds were off, equities were up. The grains continued their rally. Energy was mixed. Let's see what the second half of the week brings us.

Today's rally in Soybeans hit our stop - we sold all three contracts at the close. That position will be reflected in Wednesday's reports.

Our TNR model was calling for a trending day today, but we did not take any trades. Wednesday we are looking for a trending day again in both contracts.

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$613	48	@KC.P	-1	-$931	24
@FV.P	-4	$7,800	105	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$9,505	57
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$5,710	52	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	-$2,513	12	@HG.P	2	$71,775	271
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$1,417	30
@S.P	-3	-$4,963	5	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$88,413
		Total Closed Trades		$3,815
		Total		$92,228

Good luck, and have a great holiday!

2006-06-30T19:13:00.000-04:00

The bond market has found a new life, deciding that Bernanke and company are serious about the possibility of ending the tightening cycle sooner rather than later. The Dollar has of course done a complete about face in the past 36 hours, getting hammered again and again. Most commodities are higher if for no other reason than a weaker dollar buys less on the global markets. The precious metals in particular have had huge moves yesterday and today.

How much of these rallies are short covering vs. a new perspective on valuations? I don't know, but I expect to find out after the 4th of July holiday. If commodities can stay up at these levels through the end of next week, we just might have another commodity bull on our hands...

Our TNR model was looking for a reversion day today, but other than some morning chop we didn't get much action. We ended up losing $889 on two trades (one ES, one NQ). The model is calling for a Trending day on Monday in both ES and NQ.

As you can see from the charts on the right, our TNR model has finally found itself in sync with the market this month. We end the month at over $10K in equity with TNR, and better than $90K in the System B model - that represents a 50% return on invested capital, with half the year still to go!

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$456	47	@KC.P	-1	-$31	23
@FV.P	-4	$7,675	104	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$8,050	56
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$3,670	51	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	-$638	11	@HG.P	2	$71,775	271
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$1,802	29
@S.P	-3	-$3,763	4	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$88,997
		Total Closed Trades		$3,815
		Total		$92,812

Good luck, and have a fantastic 4th of July weekend!

2006-06-29T18:38:00.000-04:00

The markets sure seemed to like the Fed announcement today! Equities had a monster rally, Bonds were up, Crude was up, everything is coming up roses! The dollar of course got hit pretty hard on lower rate expectations - everything seems to be focused on interest rate differentials in that market right now (which is not always the case).

Our grain positions haven't been looking very good over the past few days - we need some good weather in the nation's breadbasket to help us with these crops!

Finally, Copper had it's strongest day in several months. Technical covering, merger talk from earlier in the week, and a hope that the Fed may be done soon all helped to put a nice bid to the market.

Our TNR model did OK today - we were long ES going into the Fed announcement, and were able to ride the wave all the way to our 4:00 exit, for a gain of $1747 on two contracts. Unfortunately, we were stopped out of our NQ long around 1:00, and missed that rally. Even so, net gains on the day were $1185. Tomorrow we are looking for a reversion day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,363	46	@KC.P	-1	$813	22
@FV.P	-4	$8,613	103	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$8,800	55
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$5,440	50	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$925	10	@HG.P	2	$70,075	270
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$2,572	28
@S.P	-3	-$2,038	3	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$96,562
		Total Closed Trades		$3,815
		Total		$100,377

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-06-28T17:23:00.000-04:00

We had kind of an interesting day today - many of our positions started out looking pretty grim - Copper down, CAD down, Lumber up, Bonds up... but then things turned around and we finished the day with some nice gains.

Our TNR model was in neutral today, but we are looking for a trending day in both contracts tomorrow. It could get interesting with a bit more uncertainty around the Fed meeting (25 or 50 basis points).

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$2,019	45	@KC.P	-1	$719	21
@FV.P	-4	$9,675	102	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$7,990	54
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$2,530	49	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$1,550	9	@HG.P	2	$63,375	269
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$2,451	27
@S.P	-3	-$1,550	2	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$88,759
		Total Closed Trades		$3,815
		Total		$92,574

Good luck, and have a great evening!

2006-06-27T16:14:00.000-04:00

What a difference a day makes! Everything that seemed to be going right yesterday moved the exact opposite direction today. Grains had a strong showing thanks to some revised weather reports showing dry growing conditions to persist in the intermediate term. Bonds were up on weaker than expected housing data, and Copper fell along with the rest of the metals. The metals had a very poor showing, opening up and then collapsing after Gold failed to breach the all important $600/oz level.

Our TNR model was calling for a Trending day in both ES and NQ, and that is what we saw. Our NQ model was whipsawed a bit at the end of the day, but we managed to make a total of $877 on one trade in ES and 3 in NQ. Tomorrow we are calling for a Neutral day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,581	44	@KC.P	-1	$1,619	20
@FV.P	-4	$9,113	101	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$9,025	53
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$2,650	48	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$1,738	8	@HG.P	2	$58,325	268
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$1,472	26
@S.P	-3	-$1,475	1	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$84,047
		Total Closed Trades		$3,815
		Total		$87,862

Good luck, and have a wonderful evening!

2006-06-26T21:02:00.000-04:00

Corn and Soybeans got hit pretty hard today on the back of favorable weather over the weekend, and good forecasts going forward. Energy was up, and Cotton and Corn were down. Cotton has certainly started looking like it wants to trend down again, after almost washing us out of our trade about 10 days ago.

The weakness in Soybeans has prompted us to (again) sell short 3 contracts at today's close. That trade will be reflected in tomorrow's reports.

Our TNR model was looking for a trending day in both contracts. We wound up dropping -$234 on two trades. Tomorrow we are again calling for a Trending day in both contracts.

Our open positions:

Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on	Contract	ctrcts	Open P/L	days on

@US.P	0	$0	0	@NG.P	0	$0	0
@TY.P	-2	$1,956	43	@KC.P	-1	$1,900	19
@FV.P	-4	$9,488	100	@SB.P	0	$0	0
@EC.P	0	$0	0	@CT.P	-3	$9,100	52
@JY.P	0	$0	0	@GC.P	0	$0	0
@CD.P	3	$2,320	47	@SI.P	0	$0	0
@C.P	-5	$2,300	7	@HG.P	2	$65,675	267
@W.P	0	$0	0	@LB.P	-1	$1,142	25
@S.P	0	$0	0	@ES	0	$0	0
@CL.P	0	$0	0	@YM	0	$0	0
@HO.P	0	$0	0	@NQ	0	$0	0

		Total Open Trades		$93,881
		Total Closed Trades		$3,815
		Total		$97,696

Good luck, and have a great evening!